Prediction of Andrej Loncarevic vs Eli Stephenson at M15 Lexington 10-10-25

• When it comes to recent second serve performance, Andrej Loncarevic outshines Eli Stephenson, winning 48.11% of points compared to Eli's 45.98%. This metric is a significant predictor in anticipating match outcomes.
• In the return game, Andrej also holds an edge, winning 44.92% of their opponent's second serve points and 28.18% of first serve returns, in contrast to Eli's 44.23% and 24.84%, respectively, highlighting Andrej's stronger return capabilities.
• Though Eli Stephenson excels under pressure by saving 62.90% of breakpoints compared to Andrej’s 53.01%, does this imply Eli has a mental edge during critical points?
• Over the past year, Andrej boasts a superior win rate of 82.35%, whereas Eli has only secured 57.14% of his matches. Does Andrej's consistency offer him a distinct advantage?
• Surface preference analysis indicates Andrej's best results are on Clay, while Eli performs better on Hard courts, with a dismal record on Clay.
• Both players primarily compete at the Futures/Satellites/ITF tournaments $10K level. Andrej's superior win percentage here could reflect better adaptability and performance consistency.
• In terms of opponent quality, Eli has faced slightly more challenging opponents, with an average rank of 195.29 compared to Andrej’s 226.06. Could this exposure to tougher competition, however, work to Eli's favor?
• Notably, if this match were to reach a deciding set, Andrej holds an undefeated record, winning all deciding sets in the last year, whereas Eli won 60% of these scenarios.
• While historical data offers insights, current event performance can significantly influence the match's result, highlighting the relevance of in-form status during the event.

Editorial Prediction (October 10, 2025, UTC):

Andrej Loncarevic has demonstrated a slight edge in several critical metrics, especially in second serve performance and return games. With a stronger consistency record over the past year, Andrej seems to display more resilience and skill on the court.

Though Eli Stephenson can handle pressure well by saving more breakpoints and has competed against slightly tougher opponents, Andrej's consistent winning streak and excellence in deciding sets position him better in this match-up.

Considering the match is not specifically on Eli's preferred Hard court surface and given Andrej's records on Clay, Andrej Loncarevic appears to be the likely favorite to win the forthcoming match based on the provided data and trends.